ICCS06/Pat Hughes

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Patrick M. Hughes

Lieutenant General, U.S. Army, Retired
Vice President, Homeland Security / Homeland Defense
L-3 Communications, Inc.

Former Commander, 501st Military Intelligence Brigade
Former J-2 (Director of Intelligence), U.S. Central Command
Former J-2 (Director of Intelligence), Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)
Former Consultant in Intelligence, Security and International Relations
Former Assistant Secretary for Information Analysis, Department of Homeland Security

Complexity, Convergence, and Confluence

The concept of complexity -- growing complexity in the contemporaneous context -- seems clear. The sequel to the idea of complexity in a global multi-feature construct is that converging non-linear dynamic pressures and events are creating a much more complex and difficult condition at their point of confluence than we have generally anticipated. We are ill prepared to deal with this condition. We must look at the tools and mechanisms that we use now and that we need for the future in order to efficiently and effectively succeed in managing and controlling the effects of multiple singular events and their collective convergence. Some events are manageable by their scope and nature; others are implicitly unmanageable. Taken together, especially in the economic-political-military-homeland context of national governance, the challenge of confluence can be overwhelming. This may be particularly true when those events involve violence, destruction, instability, crime and warfare notably where lives and property are at stake. Thus the premise of this presentation is that we presently have inadequate capabilities to deal with the possible (probable) complex conditions we will be faced with in the future, and we should begin now to discuss this situation and work to find solutions to our needs -- in order to avoid chaotic conditions and to stabilize and preserve in a culturally acceptable way.